Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 22.601745 27.146488 32.166806 38.096187 44.878924 52.366413 61.226719
2025-02-23 15.691754 21.560518 28.734322 38.025075 49.604936 63.422861 81.005370
2025-03-02 11.558277 17.724633 25.895343 37.250405 52.327273 71.344712 96.789861
2025-03-09 9.056347 15.291245 24.144730 37.191103 55.420852 79.441547 112.848210
2025-03-16 6.723203 12.523027 21.348455 35.114567 55.301929 82.999585 122.898307
2025-03-23 5.731626 11.574448 20.975851 36.311399 59.651819 92.668626 141.489924
2025-03-30 4.612036 10.155368 19.614433 35.770011 61.296913 98.517112 154.981273
2025-04-06 4.117537 9.731555 19.774543 37.559639 66.487407 109.652125 176.411072
2025-04-13 3.073601 8.017809 17.453192 34.991835 64.626697 110.191283 182.428702
2025-04-20 2.648521 7.455224 17.087765 35.646276 67.885008 118.529276 200.242601
2025-04-27 2.325583 7.037543 16.922063 36.603497 71.661342 127.804156 219.813687
2025-05-04 2.075461 6.728105 16.915009 37.822597 75.923056 138.003908 241.172365
2025-05-11 1.781710 6.284472 16.665135 38.748809 80.078555 148.783369 264.800459
2025-05-18 1.446316 5.636614 15.891292 38.612994 82.420372 156.871912 284.813300
2025-05-25 1.135420 4.939397 14.866514 37.824829 83.472109 162.824582 301.628593
2025-06-01 0.924006 4.458674 14.244416 37.764559 85.820809 171.030393 322.391617
2025-06-08 0.667320 3.700229 12.769153 35.662036 84.059769 172.000573 331.188573
2025-06-15 0.583277 3.534709 12.793338 36.873872 88.835175 184.632680 359.980599
2025-06-22 0.457813 3.135295 12.092855 36.325708 90.026268 190.901026 378.187974
2025-06-29 0.416617 3.085267 12.379391 38.137659 96.147638 206.351470 412.707151
2025-07-06 0.283361 2.501376 10.933011 35.537759 92.865347 204.359590 416.841578
2025-07-13 0.239001 2.349314 10.798192 36.200422 96.544252 215.470160 444.363658
2025-07-20 0.206039 2.240786 10.783506 37.169617 100.945608 228.122368 475.039286